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Trying towards the commerce deadline, let’s give attention to Minnesota Wild defenseman Matt Dumba, who moved as much as No. 9 on final week’s newest Commerce Targets board. He’s been within the information after coach Dean Evason made him a wholesome scratch for 2 consecutive video games final week earlier than returning him to the lineup on Tuesday night time in Tampa.
2023 Commerce Deadline Countdown: 37 days
Archetype and Ultimate Position
Defensive Defenseman, second pair
That appears humorous, doesn’t it? How does a one-time 50-point defenseman who has averaged two pictures on web per recreation for his profession get categorized as a ‘defensive defenseman’? The reply is a mixture of Dumba’s recreation not becoming completely into anybody field in our Archetype Rating sequence, in addition to a better indication of the place his recreation must be heading.
Dumba just isn’t a pure puck mover, and he isn’t a shutdown defender. He’s bodily and offers adequate offense, however he might be inconsistent. Any buying staff serious about Dumba is offered on his athleticism, his physicality, and the potential to rein in his inconsistency and use his toes to defend north and keep on with the opposition’s finest gamers. Meaning ideally, his position is as a defensive defenseman who provides edge to a staff’s again finish and makes groups assume twice about coming via the impartial zone.
Dumba’s finest asset is his skating. And he likes to be bodily. He has elite lateral mobility and makes use of his toes, athleticism, and aggressive nature to step up and make opposing forwards pay as they accumulate pucks with their heads down and attempt to transport them via the impartial zone. His athleticism permits him to recuperate rapidly and shut on assaults to disrupt offense – after which end them with a objective. Dumba is keen to sacrifice as a defender. He isn’t afraid to both make or take a success to make a play and willfully eats pictures when the time requires it.
He additionally leverages that skating means to hitch the frenzy and generate alternatives. He isn’t a naturally gifted offensive participant however can current a menace and open up house for teammates to make performs and may be very efficient as a decoy.
The largest knock on Dumba’s recreation is that he’s wildly inconsistent. At instances, he instances his gaps exceptionally nicely, makes contact, stalls offense and is a bodily imposing defender that groups draw back from throughout video games. The opposite aspect of that coin is the chance profile that comes with that. There are occasions he darts in and misses, or his timing is off, and that permits the opposition to generate odd-man rushes in opposition to or prolong offense within the defensive zone. In his personal finish, Dumba can get locked into puck motion and struggles to anticipate stress or hazard.
Dumba just isn’t actually an adept puck mover. With house, he can retrieve the puck and make easy performs, however at instances, he tries to do an excessive amount of and that may result in turnovers or worse.
Lastly, Dumba just isn’t a defender who constantly makes performs or poses a continuing offensive menace. His 50-point season in 2017-18 was a statistical outlier. When you take that season out of the combo, he averages 32 factors per 82 video games. Groups have a tough time determining what precisely he’s and the way his recreation may help them with the $6 million wage cap hit he’ll convey alongside for the journey.
- Minnesota Wild: Yep, possibly the more than likely choice is that Dumba stays in Minnesota as a traditional “personal rental.” The Wild are open to transferring him and have been sincere with Dumba in that there’s a potential for him to be traded. He is aware of he received’t be re-signed. But when the best deal doesn’t materialize, the Wild aren’t going to wreck their very own playoff possibilities simply to get one thing in return. They have already got a projected $8 million in cap house, so buying and selling him to enhance elsewhere is certainly not a necessity.
- Vegas Golden Knights: We all know Vegas likes to make an enormous splash and Dumba can be an enormous title. He’s additionally a product of the WHL and somebody GM Kelly McCrimmon would’ve had his eyes on. Dumba suits as a participant, however what about his cap hit? That is determined by the severity of Mark Stone’s again damage and whether or not the Golden Knights could have his $9.25 million to play with on the deadline.
- Florida Panthers: Dumba might assist each now in Florida’s playoff push and subsequent season because the Cats try to reset the steadiness of their staff between forwards and protection. As well as, considered one of Sam Bennett or Sam Reinhart might go the opposite approach and fulfill considered one of Minnesota’s wants and make the cash work. Could possibly be a win-win and far more of a traditional ‘hockey commerce’ than a rental sell-off.
- Toronto Maple Leafs: Dumba is a lower-case slot in Toronto. He would add a component on their again finish that has been lacking with out Jake Muzzin. Nevertheless it’s additionally simple to see his inconsistent play driving coach Sheldon Keefe loopy. Toronto’s protection simply must shuffle the puck to its ahead group, not make dive-bombing runs via the impartial zone.
- Ottawa Senators: This seems like extra of an offseason transaction for Ottawa, however the Sens are in search of a right-shooting defenseman and have been available in the market for some time. On condition that the playoffs are a protracted shot, would they be keen to pony up the property to check out Dumba for the rest of the season earlier than making a contract name? In all probability not after they might simply wait till July 1. Attention-grabbing to contemplate the match, although.
Comparable Commerce Returns
The Ask: Chiarot to Florida
March 16, 2022
To Florida: Ben Chiarot
To Montréal: Ty Smilanic, 2023 first-round choose, 2022 fourth-round choose (Cedrick Guindon), 50% retained
Dumba affords higher mobility, higher puck-moving potential and higher upside than Chiarot, so any such return just isn’t outdoors the realm of risk. Nevertheless, the current wholesome scratches possible depressed his commerce worth. Nevertheless it solely takes one staff.
The Extra Probably Return: Manson to Colorado
March 14, 2022
To Colorado: Josh Manson
To Anaheim: 2023 second-round choose, Drew Helleson, 50% retained
That is in all probability a extremely truthful deal for Dumba if Minnesota is serious about transferring on and giving themselves added cap room flexibility on the deadline. Each Manson and Dumba are bodily and robust sufficient defensively to warrant the comp. The second-round choose was the worth for the participant and Helleson, who was thought of by groups to be a ‘B’ prospect taking part in at Boston Faculty, was the worth for the 50 p.c wage retention.
Dumba is bodily gifted, however he depends too closely on his bodily presents to get him by. He’s in all probability finest suited going to a scenario that can put money into his continued growth and attempt to refine his bodily, defensive recreation fairly than count on speedy ends in a playoff chase. His focus must be on utilizing his mobility to defend higher and contribute as a penalty killer to outline the following iteration of his profession. His best-case situation is that he will get traded to a staff like Florida, the place he can re-sign at an inexpensive price with the time period, and settle right into a spot the place he can dial in his recreation. They’ve performed the identical with Brandon Montour and that’s labored out nicely.